6.2  Evaluation Design and Approach

The evaluation is based on a "Theory of Change Approach" which considers the Bank's PPP operations in countries' development context in assessing the extent to which PPP expected outcomes achieved and contributed to sustainable development, the conditions and reasons for the achievement of, or failure to achieve the outcomes and goals (impacts). The theory of change presents the context of PPP evaluation, the inputs and outputs as well as the immediate, intermediate and final Outcomes and Impact. The detailed theory of change is presented in Table 7 below.

Table 7: PPP Evaluation - Theory of Change

Context:

The continent suffers from a huge infrastructure gap, insufficient private sector involvement in public investments due to weak enabling environment including transparency and good governance. Increased budget constraints and insufficient public spending (weak public finance management) and non-transparent procurement policies and procedures limited the development of PPPs as a solution to promote private sector development, access to infrastructure and reduction of regional disparity and inequality.

Inputs:

AfDB High 5s, Private Sector Development (PSD) Strategy, PPP sector policies and strategies AfDB lending and non-lending activities incl. AAA, ESW, TA, PBO, policy dialogue and capacity building

Other donor's lending and non-lending activities; Coordination and co-financing

Outputs:

•  5 pilot regional PPP Hubs

•  Improved lending and non-lending instruments for the Bank's PPP interventions

•  RMC PPP laws

•  RMC sector investment policies and strategies

•  RMC procurement system and contract management

•  Regulatory framework for Public Finance Management (PFM)

•  Improved supervision and M&E of PPP projects

•  Increased donor coordination and partnership

Immediate Outcomes:

Intermediate Outcomes:

Final Outcomes:

Goals:

Impact:

•  Longer-term investments by AfDB through PPP mechanisms

•  Enhanced RMCs capacities in leading PPP investment program

•  Shared responsibility and increased RMCs leadership with effective M&E and public management systems

•  Improved AfDB regional decentralization, additionality and institutional effectiveness

•  Cost-effective (Value for Money) PPPs

•  Sustainable sector development strategies of PPPs in RMCs

•  AfDB as a partner of choice for PPP lending and non-lending

•  Improved access to cost effective public goods and services/social and economic infrastructure

•  Good governance incl. fiscal sustainability in RMCs

•  Achievement of AfDB corporate goals and mandate

•  Poverty alleviation / Reduction of inequality and regional disparity

•  Inclusive growth and transition to green economy

Contribution to sustainable development in RMCs

Hypothesis and Assumptions:

  Political will and credible needs assessments;

  High involvement of public sector, private sector, CSOs and end-beneficiaries;

  Credible risk assessment, pricing and sharing (Value for money assessment, risk management systems in place);

  Public finance administration competencies (PFM & M&E systems, public policies evaluations) and Enhanced capacity for maintenance and fiscal stability;

  Anti-corruption, enhanced transparency and accountability programs and rule of law in place;

  Increased capital flows and FDIs.

The results chain articulation is presented in Annex 6 of the volume 2 of the Inception Report (Technical Annexes). The outcome and impact indicators need, however, to be defined on the basis on the contextual analysis at project and country levels as well as of the related assumptions/risks analysis.