The nation's first three P3 projects-the Teodoro Moscoso Bridge in San Juan, Puerto Rico, the Dulles Greenway in Northern Virginia, and the 91 Express Lanes in Orange County, California-all reached financial close in the 1992-1993 timeframe. This initial period of P3 activity was followed by a ten-year hiatus without a new P3 project. P3 activity picked up momentum in 2003 with the close of the South Bay Expressway in San Diego, California. With the exception of 2004, additional P3 projects have closed in all subsequent years. Since 2012, the United States P3 sector has seen between two and four highway projects reach financial close per year. The flow of new P3 deals may be slowing somewhat at the time of this writing. This trend may be attributed through December 2015 to the lack of a national transportation authorization providing a steady and predictable flow of federal monies to support investment in new transportation infrastructure. At the same time, the financial markets are taking a harder look at toll revenue risk. In addition, the number of states able to advance availability payment concessions is limited to those with high credit ratings. Nonetheless, there are new P3 projects on the horizon, and while the flow of new P3 transactions may be slowing, there will be continued P3 activity in the coming years.
In order to develop a better understanding of P3 trends over the past 24 years, it is helpful to assess outcomes separately for the three different P3 models described earlier.