The Department and TfL originally planned for the central section of the railway to start running from December 2018. In 2010, sponsors decided to stagger the opening of the railway by opening the railway in sections and introducing services in a phased way. This was in order to reduce risks - and therefore reduce the costs allocated to risks - associated with opening the railway 'all at once'.
As Figure 14 on the right shows, Crossrail Ltd did not open the full, planned services for stages 1 and 2 on time, and it remains unclear when stages 3, 4 and 5 will open. New class 345 Bombardier trains are in use between Shenfield and Liverpool Street as part of the opening of stage 1 services, but are not yet in use between Heathrow and Paddington as had been planned. This is because the software required to use the ETCS signalling system that is on the line into Heathrow has not yet been successfully implemented and tested.
Project sponsors have agreed a concession arrangement with Mass Transit Railway (MTR) to operate the new railway. MTR are paid a performance-related fee for operating the railway, with TfL retaining revenues. Because of the delays to opening the railway, TfL's revenues will not start to increase significantly until stage 5 is complete and full end-to-end journeys through central London are possible. TfL's December 2018 business plan states that its revenues could be around £600 million lower than expected as a result of delays to the opening of Crossrail services. Because Crossrail Ltd and sponsors have not yet confirmed the opening dates for stages 3, 4 and 5, these estimates remain uncertain.
Crossrail Ltd is currently developing a new schedule for the programme.
| Figure 14 Current plans for introducing new Elizabeth line services
Source: National Audit Office analysis of departmental information |