Before the pandemic, few Australians worked from home. In Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, about 5 per cent did, and in Perth and Adelaide it was about 4 per cent.60 The numbers were small, but the trend was up: the rate of working from home increased by about half a percentage point between 2011 and 2016 in each of Australia's five largest cities.61
That changed, of course, with the pandemic. People who could work from home did so; an estimated 40 per cent of jobs can be done from home in Australia.62
Some people love the flexibility and comfort of working at home, and enjoy the time that used to be swallowed up with commuting. Others miss the social side of work, and find it difficult to work while their children are at home. Some businesses look forward to saving on office rental costs; others are concerned about doing new business in a world where people don't often meet face to face. Future work patterns and preferences are unclear.63
Likewise, future demand for public transport is unclear. No one knows how effective a future COVID-19 vaccine may be, or what kinds of social distancing requirements may be required long term. If social distancing is sustained, public transport projects - premised on the idea of carrying large numbers of people in close proximity - will need to be rethought.
In a time of high uncertainty, the best strategy is to keep options open. Major commitments to new transport infrastructure conceived for very different times make little sense right now. The mantra of stimulus does not mean that every project is a good one.
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60. Terrill et al (2018, Chapter 4).
61. Ibid (Chapter 4).
62. Ulubasoglu and Onder (2020).
63. Beck et al (2020) found that 71 per cent of people who'd worked from home during the pandemic say they would like to work from home more often in the future. But how frequently people will actually work from home after the pandemic remains very uncertain.