Inland Rail is a 1,700km freight railway line connecting the ports of Melbourne and Brisbane. Its ultimate cost is expected to far exceed the initial estimate.
The current route was first specified in a 2010 report by the Australian Rail Track Corporation, which estimated the cost at $4.4 billion.102
In 2015, a full business case was completed, with the likely, or median, cost estimate now $9.9 billion.103 Based on this business case, Infrastructure Australia assessed the benefit cost ratio (BCR) at 1.1 and noted: 'Given the marginal nature of the BCR, an increase in project cost could have a significant impact on the final BCR.'104 The 2017 Commonwealth Budget noted that 'the project is sensitive to increases in project cost'.105
National Trunk Rail, proponents of a rival plan to build an inland rail, have suggested the costs of the project will blow out further, to $16 billion, because the project involved upgrading existing lines and connecting them.106
The Millmerran Rail Group of farmers from the Darling Downs has claimed that the project is open to cost blowouts because the chosen route is through a floodplain.107
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102. P50 or median cost: ARTC (2010, p. 14). The P90 cost was estimated at $4.7 billion.
103. ARTC (2015, p. 166).
104. Infrastructure Australia (2016, p. 6).
105. Commonwealth of Australia (2017, Section 9, p. 11).
106. Wiggins (2017).
107. Ludlow (2019).