Large projects come with cost risk, as do prematurely announced projects. Either of these characteristics on its own should prompt caution. A combination of the two should mean red flags.
For example, in March 2019 the Commonwealth Government announced an initial cost estimate of $4 billion for Geelong Fast Rail when announcing $2 billion of federal funding for the project.119 However, on the same day as the Commonwealth's announcement, the Victorian Transport Minister, Jacinta Allan, cast doubt over the estimate, and was reported as saying the project would cost up to three times as much.120
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119. Harris and Galloway (2019).
120. Jacks et al (2019).