Use scenario planning to plan for uncertainty

To complement the expression of national priorities, there should be a nationally consistent suite of scenarios to test how investments and reforms will perform. This would build on the work of the Australian Government's Centre for Population, including the Population Statement, the Intergenerational Report and CSIRO's Australian National Outlook.32

National scenarios would provide regions and places with consistent principles and processes for developing localised scenarios. This would enable decision-makers to reflect on their objectives and understand and plan for a well-adapted and resilient future.

Scenario planning brings together high-quality data with scenarios that consider an agreed set of plausible futures. It is critical if infrastructure asset and network planning and decision-making is to support community resilience. Scenario planning is useful for stakeholders as it investigates and reviews interconnected and increasingly uncertain variables that enable them to plan for enhanced resilience.

A broad range of factors should be considered when building the scenarios, including (but not limited to):

•  economic performance

•  energy use

•  population, settlement and land use patterns

•  demographics

•  technological trends

•  geopolitical risks.33

They should also consider climate change projections across standard Representative Concentration Pathways (greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used for climate modelling).34 Scenarios should be regularly reviewed and updated to incorporate best international practice and the latest scientific modelling.