Assessing national risks at a local level

A 2019 report by climate risk analysts XDI, Climate Change Risk to Australia's Built Environment - A Second Pass National Assessment, examined Australia's climate risk between 2020 and 2100 by analysing five hazards:44

• bushfire

  riverine flooding

  coast inundation

  subsidence

  wind.

This granular data set considered more than 15 million Australian addresses in 544 Local Government Areas and ranked Local Government Areas for current and future risk vulnerability (see Table 2.1). The analysis is helping to develop a better understanding of localised resilience and vulnerability so interventions can be more targeted. The first edition of this project was funded by the Australian Government.45

Table 2.1: Access to comparative national data helps to build a compelling local business case

Top 10 Local Government Areas at risk. All hazards - 2020

Rank

TTIPS

VAR%

HRP#

HRP%

1

Gold Coast, Qld

Greater Shepparton, Vic

Gold Coast, Qld

Greater Shepparton, Vic

2

Brisbane, Qld

Wangaratta, Vic

Brisbane, Qld

Wangaratta, Vic

3

Sunshine Coast, Qld

Mid Murray, SA

Greater Shepparton, Vic

Murray, WA

4

Greater Shepparton, Vic

Murray, WA

Sunshine Coast, Qld

Maranoa, Qld

5

Central Coast, NSW

Gold Coast, Qld

Fraser Coast, Qld

Mid Murray, SA

6

Fraser Coast, Qld

Fraser Coast, Qld

Wangaratta, Vic

Federation, SA

7

Moreton Bay, Qld

Tweed, NSW

Mandurah, WA

Horsham, Vic

8

Wangaratta, Vic

Maranoa, Qld

Bundaberg, Qld

Mandurah, WA

9

Tweed, NSW

Noosa, Qld

Tweed, NSW

Fraser Coast, Qld

10

Mackay, Qld

Douglas, Qld

Moreton Bay, Qld

Hlnchlnbrook, Qld

Top 10 Local Government Areas at risk. All hazards - 2100

Rank

TTIPS

VAR%

HRP#

HRP%

1

Gold Coast, Qld

Greater Shepparton, Vic

Gold Coast, Qld

Greater Shepparton, Vic

2

Brisbane, Qld

Wangaratta, Vic

Brisbane, Qld

Murray, WA

3

Sunshine Coast, Qld

Mid Murray, SA

Sunshine Coast, Qld

Adelaide Hills, SA

4

Greater Shepparton, Vic

Murray, WA

Central Coast, NSW

Wangaratta, Vic

5

Central Coast, NSW

Gold Coast, Qld

Newcastle, NSW

Mundarlng, WA

6

Moreton Bay, Qld

Tweed, NSW

Greater Shepparton, Vic

Mid Murray, SA

7

Fraser Coast, Qld

Fraser Coast, Qld

Fraser Coast, Qld

Maranoa, Qld

8

Tweed, NSW

Mandurah, WA

Moreton Bay, Qld

Noosa, Qld

9

Mackay, Qld

Douglas, Qld

Mandurah, WA

Narrabri, NSW

10

Mandurah, WA

Noosa, Qld

Tweed, NSW

Western Downs, Qld

TTIPS: The Total Technical Insurance Premium is the annual average loss per address (or group of addresses) for all hazard impacts in a Local Government Area.

VAR%: Percentage of Value at Risk is the technical insurance premium expressed as a percentage of a single asset's replacement cost, specified for a 1-year period with no discounting of the technical insurance premium or the asset replacement cost.

HRP#: Number of High Risk Properties. An asset is classed as becoming High Risk if its VAR% for a given year exceeds 1%.

HRP%: Percentage of High Risk Properties.

Source: XDI (2019)46

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