Different future developments could affect these impacts

Infrastructure Australia's Statement of Expectations also asked Infrastructure Australia to consider a range of possible future developments.16

We developed five scenarios depicting possible futures to consider their potential effects on recommendation impacts (see Table IV.6).

In line with the qualitative nature of multi-criteria analysis, scenarios describe how the world could be qualitatively different to our current baseline assumptions.

The assumptions used in the baseline assessment were drawn from the Australian Government 2021-2022 Budget Paper No. 1.17 The scenarios were qualitatively defined using the seven future trends identified in the 2019 Audit, as well as COVID-19 recovery scenarios, as identified in Infrastructure Beyond COVID-19 (see Table IV.7).

Table IV.6: Five future Australian scenarios that could affect the impacts of recommendations

Future state		Description
	Baseline	Budget 2021-22 Outlook.18 Recent record rates of economic growth are expected to moderate but remain higher than global averages, and COVID-19 vaccines are fully available by the end of 2021.
	Bounce back to rapid recovery	Faster global and local recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Fast population growth, greater centralisation In cities, trend economic growth and greater return to cities and offices.
	Slow recovery from a sustained pandemic	Longer-lasting global pandemic and additional domestic outbreaks. Slower population growth, below trend economic growth for the medium-term, significantly less International movement of people and some trade effects.
	Regionalised Australia	Faster population growth in regions. Lower demand for Inner city business and residential locations and significantly more working from home.
	Digital Australia	Faster adoption of digital technologies by consumers and society. A higher rate of digital transformation, faster-closing digital divide, greater digital and technological literacy.
	Destabilised world	Increased risk and impacts of disaster. Greater Incidence of natural disasters, Increased political Instability, Increased cyberwarfare and cybercrime.

Table IV.7: The five future scenarios are qualitatively defined

Future trend	Beseline	Future scenarlo
		Bounce back to rapid recovery	Slow recovery from a sustained pandemic	Regionalised Australia	Digital Australia	Destabilised world
Quality of life and equity	Household consumption returns to trend in 2022. Greater impacts on young and female Australians.19	Faster rising quality of life	Greater inequality; lower quality of life			Shocks reduce quality of life
Cost of living and incomes	Wage growth remains low until at least 2022. CPI moderate. Unemployment 5.5% 2021 to 4.5% 2024.20	Higher income growth	Lower income growth	Lower cost of living pressure in cities, but higher in regional areas
Community preferences and expectations	Trust In government highest In 13 years at 55%.21	Higher trust in government due to successful response	Lower trust in government due to ongoing issues		Greater participation and transparency through technology	Lower trust in government due to ongoing crises
Economy and productivity	GDP expected to grow by 4.25% In 2021-22 then moderate to 2.5%. Slow productivity growth.22	Faster growth; higher productivity growth	Slower growth; lower productivity growth		Higher productivity growth due to technology adoption	Shocks reduce productivity and GDP growth
Population and participation	Population growth is expected to fall to 0.1% In 2020-21 and 0.2% in 2021-22, the slowest growth In over a century.23	Faster population growth and net overseas migration	Slower population growth and net overseas migration	Population growth centred in regions rather than cities
Technology and data	No unexpected step changes In adoption. Technology changes with trends over time, with Australia behind global best practice.				Faster change and adoption; higher literacy
Environment and resilience	Some Increased recurrence of natural disasters, environmental degradation continuing.	Faster consumption growth increases degradation	Slower consumption growth reduces degradation	Greater exposure of population to natural disasters	Faster change and adoption of low-emissions technologies	Faster climate change; bigger disasters; more frequent shocks
COVID-19	Localised outbreaks occur but are largely contained. A population-wide Australian vaccination program fully in place by end 2021.24	Faster return to international mobility; faster global economic recovery	Slower return to international mobility; slower global economic recovery

Different future developments may alter the assumptions that underpin scoring in a multi-criteria analysis, so have not been re-weighted in the baseline scorings to account for future developments. Our analysis therefore reconsiders individual scoring.

We indicatively scored each recommendation against the 33 criteria to determine whether its impact would be better, worse, or unchanged if each scenario eventuated.

Using the baseline weightings, the more criteria that were assessed as better or worse for a recommendation under a scenario, then the better or worse that recommendation ranked under the future scenario.

We undertook this process separately from re-weighting the evidence-based baseline assessment and based it on the judgement of sector specialists.

It would not be feasible to compile a full evidence base like the community-weighted baseline assessment for another five future scenarios, within the 2021 Plan. It is therefore important that further evidence is gathered to guide final decision-making and implementation.

This analysis is only intended as an indicative exploration of how the evidence-based assessment could change under different potential future developments, and can be used to inform more detailed analysis during implementation.