Once current and future energy and carbon emissions baseline forecasts (aka business-as-usual) have been combined with a target deadline, there are several NZ scenarios that can be modelled to reflect differing levels of ambition for decarbonisation.
Example scenarios include:
> 'Do nothing' scenario (i.e. carry on in a business-as-usual fashion)
> 'Minimum' decarbonisation strategy with some of the more cost-effective interventions applied
> 'Preferable' option which outlines the strategy modelled as most effective
> 'Maximum' strategy which reflects as much intervention work as feasibly possible to achieve NZ
Scenarios may need revision and remodelling as discussions are held upon which decarbonisations best fit within these respective scenarios, and this should be encouraged to ensure the most effective solution, which provides that value for money has been identified (see section 7.17).
The purpose of developing these differing scenarios is to evaluate the impact of different combinations of decarbonisation options on the energy consumption and carbon emissions baseline. These scenarios can then be used to support the development of any further business case writing (such as Outline Business Case or Full Business Case) and to aid discussions between Project Co/FM service and the Authority on which decarbonisation options best support the required NZ objectives/targets and timescales of the parties.
The Role of Carbon Offsetting Carbon Offsetting is the undertaking of actions to remove emissions from the atmosphere as a counterbalance to residual emissions that have not been eliminated after all decarbonisation options have been taken that could be implemented to reduce energy demand, optimise energy efficiency, and/or deploy low and zero carbon technologies in order to achieve NZ for Operational Energy. This guidance deliberately limits the requirement for offsetting of residual emissions. The valuable role that offsets can play in the transition to a NZ economy is recognised, but it is not seen as a replacement for actual emissions reductions which is the key focus of this guidance. |