4. The UK should be proud of the steps it has taken to achieve net zero. Progress since 2019 has exceeded expectations. In setting the net zero target, the United Kingdom was building on the progress of many years - not least a quiet transformation of our power system, from one dominated by coal, to one increasingly driven by a clean and endless supply of wind blowing across the North Sea.
5. The economy and climate change are intertwined. While this Review has a clear focus on ways to achieve growth and reduce the costs of net zero, it is impossible to consider this in isolation from the physical risks that climate change presents. In a high emission future, the level of global disruption will be so severe that 'normal' economic activity will become very challenging.
6. The Review has heard loud and clear that net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century. The evidence presented to the Review has shown that the pace of recent change has created a rush of economic opportunity at a massive, global scale. With more than 90% of global GDP covered by a net zero target1 there is now huge global momentum to reach net zero and capture the economic opportunities. This is driven by businesses of all sizes who have recognised that net zero can help them grow.
7. The UK is well-placed to take advantage. McKinsey estimates a global market opportunity of £1 trillion for British businesses by 20302 and the Government estimates that the transition can support 480,000 jobs in 2030.3 The UK enjoys a comparative advantage over other advanced economies in several key areas - notably offshore wind, carbon capture and storage, and green finance - and so can capitalise on export opportunities from the global transition.
8. We must act decisively to seize the opportunities in a global race. We are not alone in seeing the opportunity around the world. Countries and businesses have woken up. From the USA's $369 billion investment in clean technology through the Inflation Reduction Act4 and the 'France 2030' investment plan in France5 to the EU's 'Fit for 55' programme6 it is clear we are in an international race for capital, skills, and the industries of the future. We must act quickly, and in collaboration with our international partners, to cement the UK as a prime destination for international capital and unlock export opportunities for British businesses around the globe. Failing to do so will mean missed opportunities.
9. We must move quickly. We have heard from businesses that economic opportunities are being missed today because of weaknesses in the UK's investment environment - whether that be skills shortages or inconsistent policy commitment. Moving quickly must include spending money. We know that investing in net zero today will be cheaper than delaying, as well as increasing the economic and climate benefits. Analysis suggests that delaying action by ten years could mean UK debt could be 23% of GDP higher in 2050, doubling the fiscal cost of achieving net zero and not capitalising on economies of scale.7 Oxford research has shown that a fast transition to net zero based on scaling up key green technologies will continue to drive their costs down, and transitioning to a decarbonised energy system based on green technologies by 2050 can save the world at least $12 trillion, compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.8
10. Ultimately, the benefits of net zero will outweigh the costs. In some estimates, the UK would see approximately 2% additional growth in GDP, through the benefits from new jobs, increased economic activity, reduced fossil fuel imports and cost savings (for example cheaper household bills).9 These estimates do not reflect the risk and disruption of not acting, which would run so clearly counter to the prevailing expectations of business and global trends. For all that there are some risks to the public from the transition, considered in detail in this Review, for the individual the benefits of net zero will - particularly with the right interventions by government - outweigh the costs. This Review sets out recommendations to provide clarity and certainty to businesses and investors and offers a view on how to back up the UK's ambitious net zero vision with clear delivery pathways.