46. The UK should be proud of the steps it has taken to achieve net zero. Setting the target in 2019 was a genuine moment of global leadership, continued by our COP presidency. The Net Zero Strategy was recognised by the UK's climate advisors as "an ambitious and comprehensive strategy that marks a significant step forward for UK climate policy'.88 These statements of ambition have helped to deliver the continuing reduction in UK carbon emissions coupled with significant inward investment and new jobs.
47. However, the need for further action is clear. For all the UK's successes and clear ambition shown by government, it is not on track to deliver on all of its commitments according to the latest progress report by the CCC, which shows risks across most sectors - but particularly agriculture, aviation, waste, and buildings decarbonisation.
48. Climate and economic risks cannot be separated. While this Review has a clear focus on ways to achieve growth and reduce the costs of net zero, it is impossible to consider this in isolation from the physical risks that climate change presents. In a high emission future, the level of global disruption will be so severe that 'normal' economic activity seems very challenging, e.g. agricultural yield growth could fall by 30% (at a time when almost 50% more food production will be needed to meet global demand) and the number of people lacking sufficient water could increase to five billion.89 At the same time, the physical changes that we already know are certain mean that the UK will need to adapt in any scenario to some form of change. This will materially affect some of the activities that this review considers in detail, for example how and where homes and energy infrastructure are built.
49. Similarly, we must invest in nature restoration and protection as part of our plans for climate recovery and economic growth. Our economies are embedded within nature,90 and sustained economic growth requires the recovery of nature. A report by the World Economic Forum and PwC found that "$44 trillion of economic value generation - over half the world's total GDP - is moderately or highly dependent on nature."91 In particular, the Review sets out a clear call to action to drive progress on nature restoration and nature-based solutions to deliver net zero. When well-implemented in the right places, investment in nature can help us mitigate and adapt to climate change, support the recovery of the natural environment, and provide multiple other benefits to people. These include:
• Mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events and reducing future risks to our food security by minimising crop yield losses;
• Urban green spaces cooling our cities, reducing our energy demand, and preventing productivity losses in summer; and
• Coastal wetlands and saltmarshes protecting communities from storms and flooding.
50. In the context of great economic opportunity and growing risks from climate change, the review makes 129 recommendations to Government. These cover the full range of government levers, including regulation, tax and spend. Some are for immediate action, and others should form part of a longer-term strategy. All would, according to the evidence we have seen, materially improve the UK's approach to net zero - by reducing delivery risks, making things cheaper, or helping to drive growth. The recommendations fall into six pillars:
1. Securing net zero: A framework for a sustainable industrial strategy to deliver growth and jobs during the transition.
2. Powering net zero: The gear shift we need in delivery to achieve our targets and recommends specific actions to unblock the pipeline, including a re-think of our energy infrastructure. It proposes a solar revolution and onshore wind revolution.
3. Net zero and the economy: Going further to capture the economic opportunities across sectors, for businesses of all sizes.
4. Net zero and the community: How we unlock local action by reforming the relationship between local and central government, making sure the planning system supports net zero and turbocharging community energy and action.
5. Net zero and the individual: The role of individuals in the transition, how they can be supported to make green choices, and how government can ensure that net zero works for everyone.
6. The future of net zero: Seizing the global opportunities from new technology and R&D innovation now and out to 2050. It also looks at the UK's carbon pricing regime and how the UK can maintain its international leadership on climate.
The direct risks of climate change to the UK Developed under advice from the Met Office • The UK will be affected by climate change. All areas of the UK are already warmer as a result of climate change, with particular increases in the summer, and further warming projected in the decades to come. This is consistent with warming that other countries will experience. • In particular, we will see changes to temperature, rainfall, and sea-level rise: o Temperature. Climate change has already increased the chance of seeing a summer as hot as 2018 to between 12-25%. In a 2°C warmer world the chance of such a hot summer is doubled. Days where extra energy is needed for cooling, such as air conditioning, fans, and more refrigeration will more than double and wildfire danger can increase by 40%-70%. o Rainfall. An increase in both the intensity of winter rainfall and the number of wet days is expected.92 In a high emission scenario, we are likely to see less rain in summer and more rain in winter - suggesting the need to manage water resources in the UK very differently compared to today. Despite overall summer drying trends in the future, new data suggests future increases in the intensity of heavy summer rainfall events. For urban areas particularly, this will impact on the frequency and severity93 of surface water flooding. In a 2°C warmer world, flood frequency in Wales increases by 50%. o Sea-level rise. Sea level around the UK will continue to rise under all emission pathways. The pattern of sea level rise is not uniform across the UK. For London, sea level rise by the end of the century (when compared to 1981-2000) in a low emission scenario is very likely to be in the range 0.29 m to 0.70 m. In a high emission scenario, the range is very likely to be 0.53 m to 1.15 m. Sea-level will continue to rise into the next century. We can continue to expect increases to extreme coastal water levels as a result, and we cannot rule out additional changes in storm surges. The heatwave of 2022 demonstrates the change we are seeing. The summer of 2022 was the first time that the UK hit an air temperature above 40°C and was without question among the UK's hottest and driest summers on record. Evidence suggests that climate change has already made these summer extremes in temperature more likely. Continued global warming will see the likelihood of 40°C or above increase markedly - potentially to 1 in 15 years by the end of the century under a medium-emissions scenario and to one in every three to four years if emissions are high. These changes bring new risks. These include increased risk to homes and infrastructure from flooding, life lost from extreme heat (there were 2,500+ heat-related deaths in summer 2020),94 and many wider impacts on nature, public services, and business from the disruption. There are unlikely scenarios where these risks are much worse. For instance, future maximum daily temperatures above 45°C are experienced in some future climate scenarios. Similarly, we cannot rule out sea-level rise exceeding 1.5m by 2100, although this is considered unlikely. |