190. According to National Grid, to deliver the Government's ambition of up to 50GW of offshore wind by 2030, industry must deliver more than six times the amount of electricity transmission infrastructure in the next eight years than has been built in the past 30 years.164 Additionally, the UK will have to decarbonise whole sectors where electrification plays a key role (see Pillar 3), making the availability of clean, reliable power paramount to the whole economy.
191. The Review heard from potential investors in renewables projects who are constrained by an inability to connect to the network at both transmission and distribution levels. It is essential that electricity network capacity keeps pace with renewable generation ambition otherwise we will lose the confidence of investors, and consumers will be stuck paying costs of constraint management for years to come. UK consumers are already paying too much to constrain wind output. National Grid ESO modelling has estimated that constraint costs could increase from around £500 million per year in 2021 to a peak of between £1-2.5 billion per year in the mid-late 2020s, before falling away at the end of the decade when new major transmission investments are assumed to come online.165 A policy and regulatory framework that continues a 'business as usual' approach will not be able to deliver the step change foreseen to meet our net zero ambitions. Government analysis suggests that overall electricity demand could increase from its current level of 330 TWh per annum to between 450-500 TWh by 2035 and between 570-770 TWh by 2050.166167 In order to secure investment in transition and development of the electricity network, the Government and Ofgem must move faster, avoiding a piecemeal project-by-project approach and towards a wider programmatic framework.